Scenario Planning for Executive Foresight


Technological and business model disruption are both the result and cause of this VUCA environment, takes place continuously and at unprecedented speed. Many technology areas are colliding with other tech and non-tech forces to form thrusts of disruptive change that change our lives in dramatic ways: synthetic biology, genetic engineering, renewable energy, electrified and connected transportation, smart cities, platform business models, big data, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence, robotics and automation, cyber-security, the Internet of Everything and the 4th Industrial Revolution. This course explores a framework for making strategic agendas more robust amidst that uncertainty and disruption - scenario-based foresight. Scenario craft forces us to take stock of our assumptions, vet critical uncertainties and consider alternative futures in light of disruption. It allows us to gain greater visibility into the different ways in which a market or a competitive landscape can evolve, and to be prepared with the right moves. The integration of scenario craft with strategy frameworks will allow us to see uncertainty and disruption as opportunity with greater clarity and craft high-level portfolios of strategic options that have a better chance of yielding success.
The global economy is increasingly marked by volatility, ambiguity and uncertainty in our contextual social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal, ethical, and military (STEEPLEM) environment.

Course Topics

 1.     Understanding executive biases and the need for foresight on disruption

2.     Converting a disruption challenge into a question about the future shape of a domain

3.     Generating and prioritizing disruption driving forces most relevant to our our challenge

4.     Identifying the divergent operating principles for different disruption futures

5.     Crafting thought-provoking data-driven narratives on the future of the disrupted domain

6.     Charting power-shifts among actors in the industry or arena we play in

7.     Synthesizing high level opportunities for disruption ventures: Moon shots v. table-stakes

8.     Building options ladders into the end states of the disruption futures

9.     Defining leading indicators for your disruption futures and ventures

10.  Designing an impactful disruption futures presentation